Global AgriTrends

10.22.25

Thoughts on Trump’s Proposed “Beef from Argentina” Plan

Thoughts on Trump’s Proposed “Beef from Argentina” Plan

President Trump's suggestion that Argentine beef be imported to help resolve high consumer prices in America garnered quick attention throughout the cattle and beef industry. Both live cattle and feeder cattle futures fell sharply following the announcement. And cattle producer groups were quick to condemn the proposal.

Some Background on Argentine Beef

Argentina is the world’s 6th largest beef producer and 5th largest exporter. They produce about 27% of the U.S. production volumes. The image shows their historical export volumes. Note that around two-thirds of their export volumes go to China. Around 30,000 mt of their beef comes to America. That equates to around 66 mil lbs, around 2% of total U.S. import tonnage, and 0.3% of U.S. beef production.

Beef imported into America from Argentina comes under a 20,000 ton tariff rate quota. Above that quota the tariff jumps to 26.4%. With Trump's reciprocal tariff of 10% on Argentina the over quota beef now pays a 36.4% tariff. Record high beef prices will pull about 10,000 tons over that quota this year.

What if?

Were Trump to remove the 36.4% tariff on Argentina we expect that potentially another 30,000 tons could come in 2026 for a total around 60,000 tons. That would equate to 0.3% of U.S. production and increase total beef imports by about 1.5%. Note that Australia is on track to ship around 490,000 tons of beef to America this year.

Bottom line:

Removing or lowering the tariffs on Argentine beef would likely see a slight increase to overall beef imports of around 2%. That is unlikely to shift the record high lean grinding beef prices, or have any significant effect on retail beef prices.

Brett Stuart